Study: Dementia cases to double in U.S. by 2060

New cases of dementia will double by 2060, when 1 million U.S. adults are projected to develop the condition each year, according to a new study published this week (Source: “1 million U.S. adults will develop dementia each year by 2060, study says,” Washington Post, Jan. 13).
 
The new analysis in the journal Nature Medicine shows that the risk a person faces over their lifetime is higher than some previous estimates: After age 55, 4 in 10 adults are likely to develop some form of dementia. That’s in part because the new analysis is based on decades of close follow-up, including regular cognitive assessments, of a racially diverse group of people — a quarter of whom were Black and face an increased risk of dementia.
 
The new analysis relied on the long-running Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study that started in 1987 to track cardiovascular risk, funded by the National Institutes of Health. The population the researchers followed includes more than 15,000 people from Maryland, North Carolina, Mississippi and Minnesota. The geographic and racial diversity of the sample helped underscore the risk inequities: Black people, women and carriers of a gene variant called APOE4 that’s linked to Alzheimer’s disease are more likely to develop dementia.
 
But the increase in the projected number of people developing dementia is driven by the aging population. More people are projected to be alive in the age brackets when the condition is most common over time.