Graphic of the week: Potential impact of cuts to Medicaid expansion

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As the Ohio General Assembly continues negotiations in conference committee, a provision remains in the state’s biennial budget plan that would eliminate Medicaid expansion if the federal government reduces the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) (i.e., federal match) for those enrolled in this group.
 
A conference committee vote on the budget is expected next week and Gov. DeWine will then have the opportunity to line-item veto provisions in the budget. The Governor is required to sign the bill into law by June 30.
 
HPIO’s recently completed 2025 Ohio Medicaid Expansion Study includes data showing that eliminating Medicaid expansion would lead to a projected 80% increase in the number of Ohioans who are uninsured. Ending expansion would also mean that Ohio would lose more than $1 billion a year in federal funds that are used to pay for mental health and substance use treatment, among other negative economic outcomes for the state.
 
Even if the complete elimination of Medicaid expansion does not occur, other changes under consideration at the state and federal levels could impact coverage and funding for services.

HPIO’s 2025 Ohio Medicaid Expansion Study includes a series of five reports looking at various facets of the issue, including access to mental health and substance use disorder treatment, parents, caregivers and their children, the state budget, health insurance coverage and cost and jobs and the economy.

HPIO’s 2025 Ohio Medicaid Basics and Policy Considerations: The Future of Group VIII (expansion) Medicaid Coverage in Ohio briefs contain more general information on the Medicaid program overall and considerations about Medicaid expansion coverage as policymakers consider the program's future.