New HPIO brief explores state budget impact of Medicaid expansion

The Health Policy Institute of Ohio has released a new policy brief that describes how the potential elimination of Medicaid expansion may impact Ohio’s state budget.
 
Click here to see the report, the third in a series of briefs that are part of HPIO’s 2025 Ohio Medicaid Expansion Study.
 
The brief analyzes the likely state budget effects of eliminating Medicaid expansion by:

• Examining costs to the state for healthcare services for people with Medicaid expansion coverage
• Providing estimates of the revenue and savings that result from Medicaid expansion coverage
• Identifying potential impacts on other state programs

The brief finds that without Medicaid expansion, Ohio’s uninsured rate for people below age 65 would be 80% higher, resulting in 435,000 more uninsured Ohioans.

“If Medicaid expansion coverage was not offered in Ohio, the state would no longer need to pay the 10% state share of Medicaid expansion costs,” according to the brief. “However, a combination of other factors would substantially reduce any state budget savings… For example, instead of saving $853 million in SFY 2026, the state would save only $116 million,” as illustrated above.
  
Federal policymakers are debating many changes that could impact Ohio’s Medicaid program and Ohio’s state budget. At the same time, Ohio policymakers are considering discontinuation of coverage if the federal government reduces its share of funding for people in the Medicaid expansion group. The change could impact nearly 770,000 Ohioans.
 
To inform these decisions, HPIO is releasing a series of briefs that summarize data and research on the impact of Medicaid expansion on coverage, access, jobs and the state budget and economy.