Model predicts potential new wave of accidental drug overdoses

According to modelling from a Northwestern University researcher, the current rise in opioid deaths is not expected to slow anytime soon, and, in fact, may be a warning for one of the largest death waves due to opioids the country has seen to date, with Ohio potentially on the frontline once again (Source: “Model suggests coming wave of opioid deaths bigger than seen before,” Cleveland.com, Aug. 29).

Those who study opioid addiction refer to overdose deaths as coming in waves. And according to research published at the end of July, we may be headed for a tsunami.

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control, Ohio ranked fourth in the rate of drug overdose mortality in 2020; 75% of those deaths were due to opioid overdose, the CDC found. The overwhelming majority of those — 82% — are synthetic opioids manufactured illicitly, rather than prescription drugs being re-sold on the street.

Lori Ann Post, who studies opioid abuse trends at Northwestern’s Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago, said the goal of modeling is to get out in front of the problem because by the time all the toxicology reports come back and the data is input into the CDC databases, policymakers are a year behind; it’s too late by then to make the policy changes that are needed.

HPIO created the Addiction Evidence Project to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with the information needed to evaluate Ohio’s policy response to the opiate crisis and accelerate and continually improve strategies to address substance use disorders in a comprehensive, effective and efficient way.