CMS expects health care spending to mirror inflation over next decade

U.S. health care spending is likely to grow at about the rate of inflation over the rest of the decade after the pandemic fueled a nearly 10% jump between 2019 and 2020, federal experts said Monday (Source: “New normal for health care spending,” Axios, March 29).
 
The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services actuaries' projections in Health Affairs came with plenty of caveats. But if trends hold, out-of-pocket spending is going up, as is spending on private coverage, Medicare and Medicaid.
 
National health spending surged 9.7% in 2020, but is expected to have slowed to 4.2% growth in 2021. Spending is expected to grow an average of 5.1% between 2021 and 2030. Growth in the Gross Domestic Product is also projected to be 5.1% annually over the same period.