Latest CBO analysis gives ACA mixed reviews

Over the next 10 years, the Affordable Care Act will cost $1.34 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office, up 11 percent from projections a year ago, mostly because of higher-than-expected enrollment in Medicaid (Source: “Report Offers a Mixed View of Health Care Law Costs,” New York Times, March 24, 2016).

The law gave 22 million people access to coverage they otherwise would not have had, the report found, and the cost of providing that coverage from 2016 to 2019 will be $465 billion, 25% less than projected when the law was passed.

The law slashed the number of uninsured by expanding Medicaid eligibility and by offering subsidies for private insurance sold in the new marketplaces, or exchanges.

Those provisions of the law “are estimated to reduce the number of uninsured people by 22 million and to result in a net cost to the federal government of $110 billion” this year, the budget agency said in a new report. The cost of those provisions from 2016 through 2025 is $136 billion higher than projected in last year’s report, climbing by 11 percent to a total of more than $1.3 trillion.

CBO Director Keith Hall said the biggest reason for the changes was an increase in projected spending for Medicaid. More people who qualify for Medicaid under the health care law are expected to enroll, he said.