Study: More than 4 in 10 American could be obese in 20 years

A new national report estimates the obesity rate in the United States could rise to 42 percent by 2030 unless steps are taken to address the issue (Source: “42% of Americans could be obese by 2030,” Bloomberg News via Columbus Dispatch, May 8, 2012).

According to Duke Univerity professor Eric Finkelstein, who authored the report (pdf, 8 pages), preventing the anticipated increase in obesity might save about $550 billion in medical costs over the next two decades.

Finkelstein presented his findings on Monday at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Weight of the Nation obesity conference. The CDC estimates (pdf, 8 pages) that 35.7 percent of Americans are currently obese.

Finkelstein’s findings offer a glimmer of hope in the ongoing effort to address rising obesity numbers. Past studies had assumed that the rate of change would remain the same over time, with obesity prevalence reaching 51 percent of the population by 2030.

However, this new study takes into account a number of variables, including the cost of fuel, alcohol and fast food, the unemployment rate and changes in demographics. New drugs and technologies, increased access to recreational facilities and a reduction in childhood obesity also might help lower the obesity rate in the total population.