OBM releases new Medicaid caseload data and projections

The State of Ohio Office of Budget and Management has released its latest economic summary, which includes Medicaid caseload data and projections. (Source: Economic Summary PDF download, OBM, pages 19 to 21.) An analysis of the economic summary e-mailed by the Center for Community Solutions states that "caseloads have now exceeded estimate for seven straight months. Three-quarters of this increase is in the Covered Families and Children (CFC) category (15,000 cases) and one-quarter in the Aged, Blind, and Disabled (ABD) category (5,000 cases). In January, the OBM graphs show that the CFC caseload was at about 1,345,000 (vs. estimated 1,305,000) and ABD was at about 440,000 (vs. estimated 432,500). Medicaid caseloads are over-estimate 1.07%."

Despite this rise in caseload, total expenditures have seen only a slight rise due to the delay in provider rate increases. Through February, Medicaid general revenue fund expenditures were $6,746.9 million, which is $10.6 million above original estimates.

However, the OBM projects that in the coming year, the Medicaid caseload will diverge even more from the numbers assumed under the current state biennial budget (H.B. 119). These projections show that by June 2009 (the end of the current biennial budget cycle), Medicaid's CFC will have more than 50,000 additional eligibles than was forecast under the budget, while the ABD category will have more than 10,000 extra eligibles than were originally forecast. (Source: Economic Summary PDF download, OBM, page 21.)